[Bukit Batok By-Election] Have you heard of the Opposition Effect?

Have you heard of the Opposition Effect?

As the Bukit Batok By-Election draws near, many people are talking about the by-election effect where voters would vote for the opposition as the outcome would not make a difference as to who formed the Government. This by-election effect is real, as the PAP has lost all of them in the recent years. But wait, have you heard of the opposition effect?

The opposition effect is where HDB property prices fall as a result of being in an opposition ward. While WP’s Low Thia Khiang went to great lengths to dispel this, online data from HDB’s resale portal tells a different story.

Using Potong Pasir as the example, let us compare the prices of HDB units sold. Unfortunately, Potong Pasir is a small SMC, so there are only a handful of transactions for the last 12 months. Small in sample size, but nonetheless sufficient to provide us with an indication.

Example 1 – Same Blk

There were 2 transactions for units of similar size. Unfortunately, there were on different levels.

After GE 2015	Blk 115 4 to 6 Floor	93 SqM	$420,000	Feb 2016
Before GE 215	Blk 115 7 to 9 Floor	93 SqM	$380,000	July 2015

What is significant is that a unit on a lower floor sold for $40,000 more. If you factor in the premium for higher floors, the difference is significant.

Example 2 –Same Size Same Floor

There were a total of 4 transactions for units of same size on similar floors.

After GE 2015	7 to 9 Floor	93 SqM	$405,000	November 2016
Before GE 215	7 to 9 Floor	93 SqM	$380,000	July 2015

After GE 2015	7 to 9 Floor	104 SqM	$560,000	October 2016
Before GE 215	7 to 9 Floor	104 SqM	$525,000	May 2015

Once again, the data shows that units on similar floors of similar size sold for more after the PAP won the ward back from the opposition.The Opposition Effect is real! If you don’t believe us, just ask your property agents. They will tell you that there are a group of Singaporeans who will never buy a HDB flat in opposition run wards.

So residents of Bukit Batok, as we already have the Worker’s Party in Parliament, having Chee Soon Juan will not make any significant difference to democracy. But it make a difference to the value of your property.

Chee Soon Juan's Redundancy Insurance Plan

Where is the $2b coming from?

Dr Chee Soon Juan has said a lot about this redundancy insurance plan that he intends to introduce. I thought it sounded wonderful. As a PME who was retrenched a few years ago, I thought what he proposed could have indeed helped me through those rough times.

That was before I went to read his proposal in detail. (It’s in the SDP manifesto, you can read it for yourself.) I had wondered how this $2b dollar scheme will be financed. Turns out, he intends for 80% of it to come from the Government (meaning taxpayers’ money right?), 10% by employers and another 10% by workers (meaning you, and me). So if I’m not wrong, this means we not only have to pay higher taxes, we also have to fork out 10% of our take-home pay?

But there is one big problem for this retrenchment insurance – the money will only go towards those who are retrenched, and stay unemployed.

My money may go towards helping some lazy bum to continue relaxing at home, rather than looking for a job. I managed to get another job within two months of being retrenched, but I had to really go out there, apply many times and attend many interviews. I even took a small pay cut. But I also had ex-colleagues who just sat on their retrenchment package, didn’t put in much effort, and only started looking for work after many months, and had a lot more trouble than me. I think if they had redundancy insurance as well, they may still be slacking at home.

I’m not going to give my hard-earned to someone else to enjoy himself for a year instead of looking for work. No way, this scheme is not worth it at all.

Bukit Batok By-Election ... Chee Soon Juan

The SDP we know now is a shadow of its former self. It used to be the leading opposition party in Singapore, with the most opposition seats in Parliament, when it was led by Mr Chiam See Tong. Mr Chiam was well-respected and a force to be reckoned with.

All of the SDP’s achievements started to crumble the moment Mr Chiam brought in Chee Soon Juan in 1992. Mr Chiam mentored and guided him, but Chee Soon Juan repaid Mr Chiam by betraying him. Eventually, Mr Chiam was forced out of the very party he founded in 1980. After that, SDP under Chee Soon Juan never won a single seat in Parliament ever again.

Karma’s a bitch.

So no matter how much Chee Soon Juan tries to say he has changed, I honestly cannot get over how he backstabbed his own mentor, and tried to make all kinds of excuses. How could he turn on someone who had brought him into politics, groomed and mentored him? To me, that says a lot of his character.

I think it’s hard to trust someone who was capable of that.

Who knows if he will next turn on the people of Bukit Batok, after they send him to Parliament?

Bukit Batok By-Election ... CSJ and Ah Ma

The following story has been circulating online. In it, SDP’s candidate for Bukit Batok By-Election, Chee Soon Juan (CSJ) is seen lamenting the plight of a 83 year-old Ah Ma earning $1,050 a month cleaning tables in a coffee shop 6 days a week.

As part of his political campaign, CSJ has chosen to focus on the plight of lower-income Singaporeans. This is an obvious attempt to tug at the emotional heart-strings of Singaporeans. Unfortunately, CSJ has chosen to tell only half the truth.

On the surface, everyone will agree that $1,050 per month is indeed low by today’s standard. As a seasoned politician and someone who claims to be very concerned about lower-income Singaporeans, CSJ should be well aware of the various government schemes in place to help this vulnerable group.

While Ah Ma would indeed earn a mere $1,050 on her own, the G supplements her income with an additional $310 in cash and additional $270 in CPF. This means that Ah Ma actually earns $1,630 per month.

A quick glance at the G schemes that Ah Ma would qualify for in 2016 ... 

	Scheme	Cash	CPF	Total (per year)
1	Workfare Income Supplement	$1,400	$2,100	$3,500
2	GST-Voucher	$500	$350	$850
3	PGP	-	$800	$800
3	Silver Support Scheme ($250 per month from July)	$1,500	-	$1,500
4	GSTV U-Save (4-room)	$220	-	$220
5	S&CC Rebates (2 months for 4-room)	$111	-	$111
		$3,731	$3,250	$6,981

CSJ is quick to point out that Ah Ma earns only $5.50 an hour and only gets 1 day off a week. Chee Soon Juan fails to offer any solution. Any G would want to pay Ah Ma more. Any G would want to give Ah Ma more off days. Perhaps, for CSJ who has not held a job in the past 20 years and yet can own a HDB and drive a car, money falls from the sky. Unfortunately, we live in the real world.

CSJ is intentionally leaving out important information to serve his own personal agendas. In fact, other than what Ah Ma receives above, Ah Ma should also qualify for a few other G schemes like CHAS, which would help to bring down her cost of living.

There is also a recent video that interviewed Ah Ma and she said she is actually rather happy working. Why? Because working is optional (as she has a family taking care of her) and she gets to exercise while working.

The key points are these:

#1 - Chee Soon Juan cannot be trusted as he will lie (or shape the truth) for his own benefit

#2 - Not everything in life should be measured in dollars and cents. And even if we insist on using dollars and cents as the measure, the G will ensure that no one is short-changed or left behind, especially if you are willing to work and earn your own living.

This is SDP's Chee Soon Juan .... Bukit Batok By-Election

This is the Singapore Democratic Party's (SDP) Chee Soon Juan ….

Chee Soon Juan has and continues to write to the foreign media and gives speeches overseas to condemn Singapore. His impact is small as he is generally considered a “nobody”. This will change if he is elected as a Member of Parliament.

So we urge residents of Bukit Batok SMC to think carefully. It is not just about having opposition in Parliament. It is about having opposition who are Singaporean first. The following is a compilation of his condemnation of Singapore. 

1. Chee Soon Juan sent a message to President Obama to condemn Singapore and asked him to interfere in our local politics. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yNhfIexncdc

2. Chee Soon Juan condemns Singapore to an organisation based in Oslo, Norway. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jmJQp9RsfOk

3. Chee Soon Juan condemns Singapore in Sydney, Australia. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R_-w763SHyI

4. Chee Soon Juan condemns Singapore on video for The Young Turks, and the video is for worldwide distribution. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JR-y5T9c_BA

5. Chee Soon Juan condemns Singapore on video for a conference in Dubai. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QzI0Mz2KVlU

6. Chee Soon Juan condemns Singapore at Yale. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PsWQKD4tPKk

7. Chee Soon Juan condemns Singapore to foreign media. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qermwf6bIDM

8. “…he told the Bangkok Post that Singaporeans lacked conscience, lacked morals.”

“Recently, in the episode with Australia and the drug baron, he pointed his finger at Singaporeans and said that they lacked moral conscience.”

"Beneath the facade, however, lies a society bankrupt in morality.

"We pursue everything except that which makes life worthwhile.

"The lust for things material have blinded us to values of human decency. 

"Sadly political leadership does not come naturally to Singaporeans. We have been ingrained with the notion that only the PAP has the smarts to lead this country."

http://sprs.parl.gov.sg/search/topic.jsp...

9. Chee Soon Juan has also condemn Singapore to the foreign media.

He told Australia to be wary of Singtel because we're spying on Australia. It could hurt bilateral relations, and possibly even our international relations: 

http://www.abc.net.au/am/stories/s345846.htm

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s351040.htm

Against the Death Penalty: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2005/s1513146.htm

John Tan SDP: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2418001.htm

Defamation suit: http://www.abc.net.au/correspon.../content/2006/s1742509.htm

IMF Protest: http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1742489.htm

"There is no rule of law in Singapore." http://www.abc.net.au/.../singaporean-rights.../2228738

Bukit Batok By-Election - Even WP-backed The Independent Does Not Think Chee Soon Juan Will Win

Letter Published In The Independent Singapore

Dear editors,

I am a resident of Bukit Batok. You published an article yesterday which listed 10 reasons why the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP)’s secretary-general, Dr Chee Soon Juan, may be elected in coming Bukit Batok by-election. But I want to list 10 reasons here why I think Chee Soon Juan will not be elected in the next election.

1. The Tharman Factor

Mr Tharman is a very popular anchor-Minister for the constituencies in Jurong, including Bukit Batok. We believe Mr Tharman will campaign hard for the next PAP candidate fielded in the constituency.

2. The Low Thia Khiang Reason

At the 2013 by-election in Punggol East, despite popular calls for the NCMPs Gerald Giam or Yee Jenn Jong to be fielded as WP (Workers’ Party)’s candidate for that constituency, WP’s secretary-general Low Thia Khiang fielded the candidate he fielded in the constituency during the 2011 GE (General Election) – Lee Li Lian.

The voters in Punggol East saw that Mr Low did not did not field a second class MP in GE 2011, and gave Ms Lee an overwhelming endorsement.

If SDP does not field the candidate it fielded in Bukit Batok constituency in GE 2015, Sadasivam Veriyah, and fields someone else, it is natural for voters like me to question if SDP offered its voters second-class candidate in the last election.

3. The Chiam See Tong Betrayal

Older voters like me have not forgotten Dr Chee’s betrayal of opposition doyen, Mr Chiam See Tong. SDP was once the leading opposition political party in Singapore. Mr Chiam had brought Dr Chee into the SDP in 1992, mentoring and promoting him.Dr Chee then proceeded to betray Mr Chiam, isolate him and force him out of the SDP. More recently Dr Chee had tried to explain what actually led to Mr Chiam’s expulsion – but it was viewed by many as throwing more mud on Mr Chiam’s face.

4. The Rebel Image

Dr Chee has consciously cultivated an image of him as being a rebel. Singaporeans are not willing to elect a rebel who engages in confrontational politics into parliament.

5. Former SDP Members who Continue to Accuse Dr Chee as being Unethical

Former members of SDP like Jeremy Chen have continued in their accusations that Dr Chee Soon Juan is less than honourable, and SDP nor Dr Chee has rebutted Mr Chen appropriately (at least as far as I know).

6. Using Foreign Media to run down Singapore

This needs no further illustration. Dr Chee has never failed to use foreign media to run down the Singapore government. This is very unlike Mr Chiam or Mr Low, who close ranks with their Singapore counterparts when they speak to foreigners.

7. The Goh Chok Tong Harassment

Singaporeans have not forgotten how Dr Chee like a pai-kia went after Singapore’s former Prime Minister, Goh Chok Tong, with a loudhailer in GE 2001. He lost that election miserably.

8. No Experience Running a Town Council

The SDP has zero experience running a town council. They may claim that they managed town councils when the Party had Members in Parliament. But their MPs, Ling How Doong and Cheo Chai Chen, who were elected in the GE 91 did so badly managing their town councils that the voters decided to give them the boot at the next election. The fact is, besides Mr Chiam See Tong, who subsequently left SDP to form his own party, no one has effectively managed a town council. From rats to mosquito breeding, Bukit Batok has a number of municipal issues which only an effective town council can resolve.

9. Flip-Flopping

Dr Chee is seen to be flip-flopping in the type of candidates his Party would offer Singaporeans. In GE 2011, he fielded Dr Vincent Wijeysingha, an openly gay party member (who has since resigned), and in GE 2015, he fielded Damanhuri Abas, a leader of the ‘Wear White’ campaign (a campaign against the LGBT Pink Dot event).

10. Western-style Liberal Democracy

Dr Chee is a proponent of western style liberal democracy and freedoms. Middle class families like mine are not clamouring for more freedoms, but for bread and butter issues. Will life for me and my family be better or worse if Dr Chee is elected to Parliament?